The notion of a turnaround in Russia’s faltering demographic is incorrect – the opposite is the case, concludes Anatoly Antonov, professor of sociology, the family and demography at Moscow State University, in an article published March 17.
Professor Antonov descibes a scenario with an increasingly reduced ethnic Russian part of the population of the Russian Federation, a possible fragmentation of the state, and a total population of just 38 million within its current borders by 2080.
Professor Antonov says that the recent uptick in births reflects the echo of the baby boom of the late 1980s but that beginning in 2010, the number of women entering the prime child-bearing age cohort will decline significantly because far fewer were born in the 1990s. And as a result, the decline in the country’s population will begin to accelerate.
“From 2010 to 2025, every succeeding generation of people entering marriage age will be ever smaller in comparison with the preceding one,” and “all this will produce an unbelievable contraction in the present coefficient of births” so that by 2025, half the population will not want children, and only 15 percent more than one.
Professor Antonov writes that such declines will lead to the depopulation of the country, with far-reaching consequences for the integrity of the Russian state.
Read more on Paul Goble’s Window On Eurasia blog here.
Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia, writing frequently on ethnic and religious issues.
Tags: Paul Goble, Russian demographics